Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -700 CCSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +17 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -9.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -7.0 (+10.0) | 140.9 (+8.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -7.0 (+10.0) | 140.5 (+8.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -7.1 (+9.9) | 140.9 (+8.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -9.5 (+7.5) | 139.7 (+9.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2024 | CCSU 73 – 67 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#256) | -9.2 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#283) | -2.89 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#282) | -3.40 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#265) | 0.385 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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