Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -3000 CCSU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +6 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -9.1 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -8.1 (-14.1) | 132.8 (+7.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -5.5 (-11.5) | 135.4 (+4.6) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2022 | JOES 83 – 66 CCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 25-7 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-2 |
| Home | 13-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 12-3 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 63.1 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#203) | 4.1 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#112) | -0.38 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#123) | -0.40 (#161) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 31.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 0.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 31.5% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 11.0% |
| ORB% | 16.7% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 47.8% | 38.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.3% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 25.3% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.4% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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