Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +500 NMSU -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +9 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -13.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -8.6 (-0.4) | 141.9 (+19.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -11.6 (+2.6) | 140.8 (+20.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -8.0 (-1.0) | 142.0 (+19.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -7.7 (-1.3) | 142.2 (+18.8) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-16 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#300) | 5.9 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#247) | 0.61 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#256) | 1.15 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#259) | 0.565 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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