Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | UNLV -385 USM +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +11 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -1.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -3.5 (+7.5) | 143.6 (-6.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -5.3 (+5.7) | 145.5 (-8.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -3.4 (+7.6) | 143.3 (-6.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -3.6 (+7.4) | 143.7 (-6.7) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-7 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#63) | 11.2 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#44) | 2.63 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#40) | 3.43 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#31) | 0.592 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.2% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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