Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | STAN -235 LUC +192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -9.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -6.3 (+6.7) | 130.3 (+6.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -5.3 (+7.7) | 128.8 (+8.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -5.3 (+7.7) | 131.5 (+5.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -5.0 (+8.0) | 132.9 (+4.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#77) | -2.8 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#212) | -0.23 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#178) | -0.27 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#155) | 0.484 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 25.7% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.