Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | SEA +350 IONA -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +11 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | IONA -8.8 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -6.2 (-4.8) | 145.4 (+9.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -5.4 (-5.6) | 142.9 (+12.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -6.2 (-4.8) | 143.7 (+11.3) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -5.7 (-5.3) | 143.8 (+11.2) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEA | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-1 |
| Away | 7-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 8-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#150) | 9.8 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#88) | 0.72 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#100) | 1.18 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#93) | 0.560 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEA | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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