Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | USF -900 NJIT +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +19 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | USF -11.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.7 (+41.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -10.0 (+9.0) | 132.3 (+32.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -10.1 (+8.9) | 132.2 (+32.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -9.5 (+9.5) | 132.6 (+32.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -10.2 (+8.8) | 132.2 (+32.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-12 |
| Home | 9-9 | 5-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#198) | -8.2 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#254) | -1.91 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#205) | -2.16 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#252) | 0.394 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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