Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | SF -4000 HART +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +32 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SF -31.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -27.3 (+4.7) | 139.5 (-1.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -25.0 (+7.0) | 140.5 (-2.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -22.8 (+9.2) | 139.7 (-1.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -28.0 (+4.0) | 138.3 (-0.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 5-23 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 0-0 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-6 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 59.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#90) | -21.5 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#78) | -3.45 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#76) | -4.23 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#97) | 0.313 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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