Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -31.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | ARIZ -8000 MORG +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +25 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -25.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -24.4 (+0.6) | 161.5 (-0.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -22.8 (+2.2) | 159.9 (+1.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -24.9 (+0.1) | 160.7 (+0.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -24.4 (+0.6) | 161.3 (-0.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 7, 2023 | ARIZ 122 – 59 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#5) | -3.0 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#8) | -0.75 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.65 (#14) | -2.14 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#10) | 0.464 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.7% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 59.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 34.3% |
Game Analysis
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