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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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52–12 on winners spread MAE 9.7 64 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Chicago State @ Iowa State +25.3 129.2 90% 48–79 ✓
Davidson @ Alabama +4.5 147.2 62% 79–78 ✗
Xavier @ Villanova +3.7 138.4 72% 58–71 ✓
Morehead State @ IU Indianapolis -13.1 127.9 17% 80–52 ✓
Presbyterian @ Furman +11.8 143.2 85% 61–75 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ High Point +1.3 143.0 57% 52–55 ✓
Fresno State @ Utah +3.9 137.0 67% 50–55 ✓
Winthrop @ Mississippi State +7.1 143.0 76% 63–84 ✓
Elon @ Arkansas +19.6 154.8 89% 55–81 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Cincinnati +16.1 134.1 88% 67–76 ✓
American University @ George Mason +17.0 147.0 89% 44–67 ✓
Bradley @ Sam Houston -4.4 134.3 26% 87–61 ✓
Howard @ Harvard +3.5 150.4 67% 69–77 ✓
Southern @ Dayton +14.0 140.1 87% 60–69 ✓
UAlbany @ Lehigh +1.4 133.1 52% 68–52 ✗
Wright State @ NC State +12.6 152.5 85% 84–70 ✗
App State @ North Carolina +13.2 141.7 86% 50–70 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Bellarmine +2.3 137.3 64% 71–57 ✗
Manhattan @ The Citadel +5.3 152.8 69% 77–74 ✗
Marshall @ Toledo +7.4 154.8 75% 63–95 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Ball State +13.2 138.8 87% 55–75 ✓
Michigan State @ Oakland -5.0 142.5 34% 90–78 ✓
Delaware @ Iona +5.7 147.1 69% 72–83 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ South Alabama +12.2 139.0 85% 69–84 ✓
Air Force @ Tarleton State +5.9 122.9 73% 45–67 ✓
Grambling @ TCU +19.4 136.3 90% 55–90 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Iowa +26.0 154.4 91% 62–93 ✓
McNeese @ Kansas State +16.6 136.2 88% 59–74 ✓
UConn @ Marquette -3.3 148.2 42% 78–70 ✓
Portland State @ Utah State +20.6 144.4 90% 62–81 ✓
North Carolina Central @ UTEP +10.2 139.6 81% 61–70 ✓
Norfolk State @ New Mexico +4.6 154.6 65% 54–68 ✓
Utah Valley @ Washington -2.2 140.4 40% 68–52 ✓
Pepperdine @ Oregon +13.1 146.6 86% 59–68 ✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Tech +5.3 144.5 71% 62–72 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ California Baptist +11.0 147.7 82% 68–84 ✓
Santa Clara @ San José State -0.5 147.3 52% 79–57 ✓
Nicholls @ Oregon State -1.8 144.5 46% 61–83 ✗
Hartford @ Sacred Heart +5.8 149.3 66% 78–71 ✗
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington -3.3 132.0 39% 58–65 ✗
William & Mary @ Valparaiso +13.9 130.9 87% 66–88 ✓
Towson @ Navy +5.0 136.0 69% 69–52 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Notre Dame +6.4 140.2 77% 73–83 ✓
Alabama State @ Texas +27.5 136.6 91% 48–68 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Texas Tech +16.3 145.2 87% 46–78 ✓
Colgate @ Vermont +7.4 138.2 74% 68–78 ✓
Stony Brook @ Florida +13.7 141.3 86% 62–87 ✓
Delaware State @ Temple +23.6 138.1 91% 48–85 ✓
Army @ South Carolina +11.0 136.9 83% 75–105 ✓
Liberty @ Northern Iowa -0.9 133.0 40% 76–74 ✓
Idaho State @ UC Santa Barbara +16.7 135.7 89% 43–56 ✓
Bucknell @ Richmond +15.5 151.4 87% 50–81 ✓
St. Thomas @ Denver +0.5 148.8 48% 74–75 ✓
Western Carolina @ Charlotte +7.6 152.7 78% 82–98 ✓
Green Bay @ Minnesota +19.6 136.6 90% 56–72 ✓
Portland @ UC Davis +10.7 144.7 81% 65–60 ✗
Southern Illinois @ San Francisco +11.9 130.2 83% 52–64 ✓
Wyoming @ Stanford -7.7 143.9 28% 63–66 ✗
Murray State @ Auburn +10.2 148.3 81% 58–71 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Kentucky +14.4 148.8 87% 60–95 ✓
Chicago State @ Drake +18.3 139.6 90% 50–87 ✓
Troy @ Mercer +7.4 142.7 79% 69–65 ✗
Youngstown State @ West Virginia +12.9 134.6 83% 52–82 ✓
Pacific @ California +10.0 132.7 82% 53–73 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.