Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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53–19 on winners spread MAE 8.1 72 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Francis -4.4 133.3 34% 72–65 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UT Rio Grande Valley +2.7 146.4 60% 86–76 ✗
Texas State @ Sam Houston +6.2 134.8 71% 73–60 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Colorado +26.7 162.6 99% 68–90 ✓
Cleveland State @ Bradley +9.8 140.3 81% 76–69 ✗
New Mexico @ New Mexico State -21.7 159.3 2% 73–72 ✓
UConn @ Gonzaga -5.4 147.0 31% 76–63 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Fresno State +9.8 135.8 81% 58–61 ✓
Portland State @ San Diego -1.9 142.6 43% 65–69 ✗
LSU @ Texas +7.3 142.3 75% 85–96 ✓
La Salle @ Miami +14.8 160.2 91% 77–84 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Penn State +2.6 144.1 59% 82–81 ✗
Lindenwood @ IU Indianapolis -1.3 138.4 45% 73–67 ✓
Kansas @ Indiana -6.0 146.9 29% 75–71 ✓
NJIT @ Niagara +5.6 151.0 69% 81–89 ✓
Long Island University @ Rutgers +23.0 131.1 98% 61–83 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Providence +21.3 136.5 97% 64–78 ✓
Indiana State @ Ball State -18.7 149.9 4% 83–72 ✓
Baylor @ Michigan State -9.4 142.7 20% 64–88 ✗
James Madison @ Hampton -19.6 170.1 4% 88–71 ✓
Dartmouth @ Le Moyne -0.2 135.6 49% 54–80 ✗
Southern @ Tulane +10.2 169.6 82% 81–105 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Mercer +5.3 135.2 68% 65–70 ✓
Norfolk State @ Hofstra +11.7 143.6 86% 58–74 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Presbyterian +2.7 163.0 60% 94–84 ✗
Towson @ Bryant -0.3 124.6 49% 93–101 ✗
Rider @ Monmouth +13.6 140.2 89% 71–77 ✓
UAlbany @ Drexel +10.1 135.6 82% 52–71 ✓
Kansas City @ Bowling Green +9.6 141.2 81% 69–79 ✓
Washington State @ Santa Clara -11.3 148.7 15% 61–69 ✗
Western Michigan @ UIC +16.7 131.5 94% 68–89 ✓
South Carolina State @ Pittsburgh +28.8 156.6 100% 50–86 ✓
Temple @ VCU +9.9 145.8 82% 78–87 ✓
Georgetown @ Notre Dame +6.2 136.7 71% 72–68 ✗
Texas A&M @ Houston +9.2 130.2 80% 66–70 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan +21.3 149.7 97% 66–83 ✓
Clemson @ Memphis +1.5 151.0 55% 77–79 ✓
Austin Peay @ Western Kentucky +11.3 132.7 85% 64–65 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Georgia Southern -11.1 145.5 16% 82–77 ✓
Rice @ Northwestern State -5.5 149.3 31% 76–51 ✓
UCLA @ Ohio State +6.5 135.5 72% 60–67 ✓
Missouri State @ Tulsa +2.5 137.5 59% 72–73 ✓
Belmont @ Samford +5.5 172.5 69% 93–99 ✓
Radford @ Bucknell -0.9 130.3 47% 70–63 ✓
Fordham @ St. John's +15.8 144.3 93% 55–77 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ St. Bonaventure -9.5 153.1 19% 64–54 ✓
San Francisco @ Utah State +2.2 140.2 58% 53–54 ✓
Chicago State @ Valparaiso +6.0 129.8 71% 63–62 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Murray State +13.1 149.6 88% 61–55 ✗
Evansville @ Bellarmine -0.7 145.9 47% 70–61 ✓
North Alabama @ Tennessee Tech -0.8 149.5 47% 67–70 ✗
Utah Valley @ Utah +17.2 143.0 94% 62–76 ✓
Southern Utah @ Northern Arizona +2.1 147.9 57% 74–76 ✓
Vermont @ Virginia Tech +9.6 137.7 81% 51–73 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ App State +10.3 140.6 83% 59–80 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ South Florida +4.0 136.5 64% 64–77 ✓
Arizona @ Purdue -4.9 161.5 33% 84–92 ✗
Florida A&M @ Iowa +23.0 152.5 98% 52–88 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Loyola Marymount +2.3 149.3 58% 68–59 ✗
Western Carolina @ South Carolina Upstate -4.6 147.1 34% 70–53 ✓
Central Connecticut @ UMass Lowell +15.1 146.1 92% 57–54 ✗
Air Force @ UT Arlington -0.0 130.4 50% 73–76 ✗
UC Davis @ Pacific -6.6 138.5 27% 82–61 ✓
Rhode Island @ Delaware +8.0 146.2 77% 56–67 ✓
North Carolina @ Kentucky -0.4 173.5 48% 83–87 ✗
Northwestern @ DePaul -4.4 145.3 34% 56–46 ✓
High Point @ Georgia +4.2 152.5 65% 58–66 ✓
Northeastern @ Virginia +17.0 126.9 94% 54–56 ✓
Lipscomb @ Arkansas +3.0 154.1 61% 66–69 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina +26.3 133.6 99% 69–73 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ George Mason +19.4 136.2 96% 54–62 ✓
West Virginia @ Massachusetts +6.5 147.6 72% 79–87 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.