Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | UK -111 UNC -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +4 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -0.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -0.4 (+4.4) | 165.2 (+4.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -1.4 (+5.4) | 162.2 (+7.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -0.6 (+4.6) | 166.3 (+3.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -0.1 (+4.1) | 164.7 (+5.3) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | UNC 67 – 64 UK |
| Dec 18, 2021 | UK 98 – 69 UNC |
| Dec 19, 2020 | UNC 75 – 63 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 7-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#29) | 12.1 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#70) | 1.75 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#59) | 3.15 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#85) | 0.585 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.20 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 11.9% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 34.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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