Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | UK -305 UNC +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +3 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -14.3 (-17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (-27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -10.8 (-13.8) | 155.4 (-24.4) | 80% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UK -10.2 (-13.2) | 153.9 (-22.9) | 78% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UK -11.9 (-14.9) | 152.2 (-21.2) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -11.8 (-14.8) | 153.3 (-22.3) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | UK 87 – 83 UNC |
| Dec 18, 2021 | UK 98 – 69 UNC |
| Dec 19, 2020 | UNC 75 – 63 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 18-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 21.2 (#6) | 12.2 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#120) | 3.07 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#108) | 5.23 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#123) | 0.610 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 46.3 | 43.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.95 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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