Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UK +130 UNC -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +12 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -8.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -6.7 (-5.3) | 132.9 (+5.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -5.9 (-6.1) | 134.6 (+3.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -8.0 (-4.0) | 135.7 (+2.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -6.7 (-5.3) | 133.7 (+4.3) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | UNC 67 – 64 UK |
| Dec 16, 2023 | UK 87 – 83 UNC |
| Dec 18, 2021 | UK 98 – 69 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 10-6 |
| Home | 5-6 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#139) | 9.7 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#282) | 1.46 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#241) | 2.68 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#252) | 0.578 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 24.4% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 46.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 16.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 42.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 14.7% |
Game Analysis
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