Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UK -150 UNC +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +29 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | UK -0.7 (+28.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -0.3 (+29.3) | 145.0 (+22.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -0.2 (+28.8) | 145.3 (+21.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -0.4 (+28.6) | 143.2 (+23.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -0.1 (+28.9) | 145.2 (+21.8) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | UNC 67 – 64 UK |
| Dec 16, 2023 | UK 87 – 83 UNC |
| Dec 19, 2020 | UNC 75 – 63 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 15-5 |
| Home | 18-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#32) | 10.2 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#99) | 2.12 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#75) | 2.88 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#182) | 0.624 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 43.9 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 15.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 45.0% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 81.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.3% | 13.1% |
Game Analysis
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