Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -175 GT +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +1 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -3.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -2.1 (-3.1) | 142.5 (+20.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -0.8 (-1.8) | 139.0 (+24.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -1.0 (-2.0) | 139.6 (+23.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -1.4 (-2.4) | 143.6 (+19.4) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#115) | 0.5 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#223) | 0.68 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#201) | 1.36 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#229) | 0.525 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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