Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -1600 LAS +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +7 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -15.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -14.7 (-7.7) | 153.6 (+7.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -14.3 (-7.3) | 155.3 (+5.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -14.3 (-7.3) | 155.1 (+5.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -14.4 (-7.4) | 155.1 (+5.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#54) | -2.3 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#55) | 1.04 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#65) | 0.99 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#39) | 0.506 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 42.3% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.8% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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