Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | VT -600 UVM +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +22 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | VT -10.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -8.4 (+13.6) | 135.0 (-11.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -8.9 (+13.1) | 137.5 (-13.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -9.5 (+12.5) | 137.2 (-13.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -10.3 (+11.7) | 136.3 (-12.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-1 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 63.8 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#65) | 1.6 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#52) | 1.09 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#49) | 1.17 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#70) | 0.559 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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