Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | APP -275 GWEB +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +21 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | APP -10.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -7.0 (+14.0) | 138.4 (+0.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -8.1 (+12.9) | 138.6 (+0.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -7.7 (+13.3) | 138.9 (+0.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -8.2 (+12.8) | 141.3 (-2.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-5 |
| Home | 15-0 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#62) | -2.4 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#41) | -0.49 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#48) | -1.02 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#35) | 0.468 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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