Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | TEX -333 LSU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +11 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -7.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+40.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -7.0 (+4.0) | 137.9 (+43.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -6.9 (+4.1) | 138.4 (+42.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -6.5 (+4.5) | 140.0 (+41.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -6.1 (+4.9) | 139.4 (+41.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | TEX 88 – 85 LSU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TEX 89 – 58 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#59) | 0.7 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#66) | 0.09 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#57) | 0.45 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#110) | 0.485 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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