Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UGA -350 HPU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +8 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -4.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -4.5 (+3.5) | 146.2 (-22.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -4.3 (+3.7) | 148.4 (-24.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -3.8 (+4.2) | 149.7 (-25.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -3.7 (+4.3) | 149.4 (-25.4) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-3 |
| Home | 13-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 82.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#127) | 3.3 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#96) | 0.52 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#103) | 0.94 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#37) | 0.505 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 35.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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