Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | UTA -110 AF +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | AF -0.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.5 (+20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -1.2 (+4.2) | 133.7 (+15.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -2.3 (+5.3) | 132.0 (+17.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AF -1.9 (+4.9) | 132.4 (+16.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -2.0 (+5.0) | 133.9 (+15.1) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-3 | 4-12 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#171) | 0.2 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#245) | 0.48 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#247) | 0.45 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#181) | 0.462 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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