Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | MER -133 FGCU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MER -4.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -2.9 (+2.1) | 129.6 (+5.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -4.0 (+1.0) | 136.9 (-1.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -4.4 (+0.6) | 135.8 (-0.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -4.4 (+0.6) | 132.5 (+2.5) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2022 | FGCU 67 – 62 MER |
| Dec 19, 2021 | FGCU 67 – 55 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#289) | -6.6 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#261) | -2.06 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#294) | -3.04 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#257) | 0.436 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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