Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | FGCU -160 MER +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +12 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | FGCU -5.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -2.2 (+9.8) | 145.5 (-23.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -4.6 (+7.4) | 148.5 (-26.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -4.5 (+7.5) | 149.4 (-27.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -4.2 (+7.8) | 148.2 (-26.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | MER 70 – 65 FGCU |
| Dec 11, 2022 | FGCU 67 – 62 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#167) | -0.5 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#106) | 0.75 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#144) | 0.73 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#131) | 0.550 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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