Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Alico Arena · December 19, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread FGCU -3.0 Home covered
O/U 145.5 Under
Money FGCU -160 / MER +140
Model Predictions
Spread Total FGCU win
Actual FGCU +12 122 Won
Massey FGCU -5.4 (+6.6) — —
Massey Totals — 149.1 (-27.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 72% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 67% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ FGCU -2.2 (+9.8) 145.5 (-23.5) 64% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML FGCU -4.6 (+7.4) 148.5 (-26.5) 70% ✓
Baseline ML FGCU -4.5 (+7.5) 149.4 (-27.4) 70% ✓
Baseline Plus ML FGCU -4.2 (+7.8) 148.2 (-26.2) 71% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 16, 2023 MER 70 – 65 FGCU
Dec 11, 2022 FGCU 67 – 62 MER

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FGCU MER
Neutral 0-0 2-2
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Massey 0.3 (#167) -0.5 (#190)
Bradley-Terry 0.82 (#106) 0.75 (#115)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.46 (#144) 0.73 (#130)
RPI 0.522 (#131) 0.550 (#97)
Shooting & Four Factors FGCU MER
FG% 44.6% 44.7%
3PT% 37.5% 35.3%
REB / G 35.9 31.6
OREB / G 10.2 8.4
AST / TO 0.96 1.07
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.9% 52.7%
TOV% 21.9% 18.8%
ORB% 30.4% 25.4%
FT Rate 23.3% 20.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.2% 54.8%
Opp TOV% 18.0% 18.4%
DRB% 72.6% 72.0%
Opp FT Rate 18.4% 21.4%

Game Analysis

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