Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -150 CHST +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHST +1 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | VAL -6.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -3.4 (-4.4) | 132.2 (-7.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -4.1 (-5.1) | 131.5 (-6.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -4.5 (-5.5) | 132.5 (-7.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -4.9 (-5.9) | 130.9 (-5.9) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2022 | CHST 87 – 74 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 0-0 |
| Home | 6-11 | 6-5 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#301) | -8.6 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#266) | -1.85 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#284) | -2.83 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#290) | 0.396 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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