Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -10000 FAMU +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +36 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -23.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -22.4 (+13.6) | 150.7 (-10.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -17.7 (+18.3) | 148.0 (-8.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -19.4 (+16.6) | 148.5 (-8.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -19.5 (+16.5) | 151.7 (-11.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 6-23 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-4 | 4-8 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#45) | -9.0 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#148) | -0.18 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#145) | -0.29 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#104) | 0.556 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 41.6% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 35.5% |
Game Analysis
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