Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
| Money | GMU -800 L-MD +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +8 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -20.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -15.8 (-7.8) | 138.0 (-22.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -16.8 (-8.8) | 140.4 (-24.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -18.6 (-10.6) | 139.5 (-23.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -16.8 (-8.8) | 137.8 (-21.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | GMU 86 – 79 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 2-11 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#83) | -9.4 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#43) | -3.17 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#51) | -4.68 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#42) | 0.365 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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