Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -10000 L-MD +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +7 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -26.8 (-19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -23.6 (-16.6) | 143.2 (+21.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -22.8 (-15.8) | 142.0 (+23.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -26.4 (-19.4) | 142.7 (+22.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -27.1 (-20.1) | 142.7 (+22.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | GMU 62 – 54 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 17-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#74) | -14.1 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#47) | -3.28 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#56) | -4.54 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#41) | 0.321 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 36.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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