Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | PUR +100 ARIZ -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +8 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -6.1 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -2.5 (+10.5) | 161.1 (+14.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -2.9 (+10.9) | 160.8 (+15.2) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -2.6 (+10.6) | 158.6 (+17.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -1.7 (+9.7) | 159.8 (+16.2) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 29, 2026 | ARIZ 79 – 64 PUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-0 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 87.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 20.5 (#5) | 26.6 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#7) | 3.66 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.04 (#7) | 5.37 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.716 (#2) | 0.668 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.1% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 46.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 57.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 83.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 13.2% |
Game Analysis
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