Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -270 PUR +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +15 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -4.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -4.5 (+10.5) | 151.9 (-8.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -2.6 (+12.4) | 149.9 (-6.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -4.2 (+10.8) | 150.8 (-7.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -3.7 (+11.3) | 150.4 (-7.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | PUR 92 – 84 ARIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-3 | 30-9 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 9-1 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 11-1 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.2 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 27.0 (#3) | 22.4 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.33 (#1) | 3.72 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.55 (#2) | 4.71 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.675 (#3) | 0.625 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 2.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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