Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -8000 SHU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +14 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -20.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -20.0 (-6.0) | 140.8 (+1.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -19.1 (-5.1) | 137.5 (+4.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -21.5 (-7.5) | 136.8 (+5.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -21.0 (-7.0) | 139.4 (+2.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2021 | PROV 92 – 64 SHU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 14-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#63) | -8.0 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#45) | -1.86 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#36) | -2.54 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#50) | 0.387 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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