All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Amica Mutual Pavilion · December 16, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread PROV -19.5 Away covered
O/U 141.5 Over
Money PROV -8000 / SHU +1400
Model Predictions
Spread Total PROV win
Actual PROV +14 142 Won
Massey PROV -20.5 (-6.5) — —
Massey Totals — 136.9 (+5.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 99% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ PROV -20.0 (-6.0) 140.8 (+1.2) 90% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML PROV -19.1 (-5.1) 137.5 (+4.5) 90% ✓
Baseline ML PROV -21.5 (-7.5) 136.8 (+5.2) 90% ✓
Baseline Plus ML PROV -21.0 (-7.0) 139.4 (+2.6) 90% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 11, 2021 PROV 92 – 64 SHU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PROV SHU
Overall 21-14 16-16
Conference 10-10 10-6
Home 14-5 11-5
Away 4-7 4-11
Neutral 3-2 1-0
Last 5 4-1 0-5
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 72.4 72.8
Avg Pts Against 68.8 73.3
Massey 7.6 (#63) -8.0 (#305)
Bradley-Terry 1.87 (#45) -1.86 (#312)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.88 (#36) -2.54 (#314)
RPI 0.589 (#50) 0.387 (#332)
Shooting & Four Factors PROV SHU
FG% 46.8% 41.3%
3PT% 32.1% 32.7%
REB / G 38.3 34.7
OREB / G 9.3 9.7
AST / TO 1.00 0.77
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.3% 46.8%
TOV% 19.7% 18.6%
ORB% 28.1% 26.4%
FT Rate 22.6% 22.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 42.6% 51.6%
Opp TOV% 18.7% 20.0%
DRB% 73.6% 67.8%
Opp FT Rate 18.4% 20.6%

Game Analysis

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