Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -17.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -1300 SHU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +28 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -5.4 (+22.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -5.4 (+22.6) | 150.9 (+5.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -8.5 (+19.5) | 149.5 (+6.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | PROV 78 – 64 SHU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 16-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#173) | 6.4 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#82) | 2.02 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#103) | 2.75 (#11) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 50.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 47.1% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 10.9% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 7.6% |
Game Analysis
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