Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | USU -175 SF +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +1 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | USU -3.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-32.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -2.5 (-1.5) | 134.5 (-27.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -2.4 (-1.4) | 138.5 (-31.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -1.7 (-0.7) | 139.7 (-32.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -1.6 (-0.6) | 138.8 (-31.8) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2022 | USU 82 – 64 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#35) | 8.2 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#18) | 1.58 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#25) | 2.22 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#13) | 0.594 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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