Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | BUCK +145 RAD -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | RAD -0.7 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -1.0 (-6.0) | 133.9 (-0.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -1.2 (-5.8) | 135.8 (-2.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -0.7 (-6.3) | 134.0 (-1.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -2.5 (-4.5) | 134.1 (-1.1) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | RAD 74 – 70 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-11 |
| Home | 6-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 4-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#273) | 0.1 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#211) | 0.08 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#191) | 0.19 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#183) | 0.499 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 28.6 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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