Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -600 SELA +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SELA +6 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -14.0 (-20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-34.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -9.3 (-15.3) | 138.0 (-22.0) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -11.0 (-17.0) | 143.6 (-27.6) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -10.9 (-16.9) | 143.5 (-27.5) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -11.0 (-17.0) | 141.4 (-25.4) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#177) | -9.5 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#244) | -3.21 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#219) | -3.83 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#266) | 0.384 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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