Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -1400 NE +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +2 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -18.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -18.2 (-16.2) | 127.8 (-17.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -14.8 (-12.8) | 130.9 (-20.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -16.3 (-14.3) | 131.1 (-21.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -15.3 (-13.3) | 126.1 (-16.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#32) | -1.4 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#22) | -0.36 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#26) | -0.20 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#26) | 0.488 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.92 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.7% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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