What ever happened to Leon Trotsky? "No More Heroes" - The Stranglers
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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54–14 on winners spread MAE 10.2 68 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida A&M @ Kentucky +35.3 131.8 100% 68–88 ✓
Youngstown State @ Central Michigan -4.0 158.1 36% 76–65 ✓
Saint Francis @ Robert Morris +14.8 139.9 91% 66–77 ✓
Ohio @ Delaware +3.8 140.6 64% 95–76 ✗
Binghamton @ Niagara +13.2 127.3 89% 67–73 ✓
Murray State @ Middle Tennessee +9.0 134.8 79% 67–83 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic +23.8 131.6 98% 52–67 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Cincinnati +8.1 159.0 77% 54–72 ✓
Mercer @ Troy +11.5 141.4 85% 82–79 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Florida International +11.8 139.5 86% 74–79 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Ball State +14.9 138.8 91% 54–58 ✓
Stetson @ UCF +13.9 134.3 90% 58–73 ✓
Navy @ VCU +3.7 137.2 63% 52–74 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Northern Iowa +1.6 133.0 56% 52–62 ✓
Bucknell @ Richmond +9.5 133.1 81% 71–81 ✓
New Hampshire @ Brown +8.3 122.2 77% 51–67 ✓
Canisius @ Florida Gulf Coast +16.0 141.9 93% 81–84 ✓
Southern Utah @ Colorado +14.7 161.6 91% 78–86 ✓
UT Arlington @ California +1.4 115.9 55% 51–73 ✓
Michigan @ North Carolina +5.8 162.1 70% 76–80 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State -2.5 134.5 41% 70–68 ✓
Samford @ Belmont +2.3 156.1 58% 56–79 ✓
New Mexico State @ Kent State +6.6 144.2 73% 63–73 ✓
Clemson @ Georgia Tech +3.1 141.3 61% 79–66 ✗
McNeese @ Houston +36.8 119.6 100% 44–83 ✓
Louisiana @ Texas +18.4 144.1 95% 72–100 ✓
Southern @ SE Louisiana +2.8 152.1 60% 62–80 ✓
Alabama State @ Memphis +27.7 143.6 99% 61–83 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Tulane +23.9 138.0 99% 63–84 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Saint Louis +7.2 152.8 74% 69–67 ✗
East Tennessee State @ LSU +15.2 134.4 92% 68–72 ✓
Bellarmine @ Evansville +1.1 125.2 54% 61–73 ✓
Notre Dame @ Florida State +2.4 142.0 58% 72–73 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Wyoming -15.1 130.0 9% 66–54 ✓
Maine @ Ohio State +20.7 145.7 97% 61–95 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Purdue +37.8 148.4 100% 53–74 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Arkansas +21.6 158.5 98% 51–85 ✓
TCU @ Utah +11.4 133.4 85% 75–71 ✗
Auburn @ Washington +1.2 135.5 54% 84–61 ✗
Sacramento State @ Cal State Fullerton +1.9 137.0 57% 49–59 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ UTEP +7.7 140.0 76% 62–75 ✓
Arizona State @ San Francisco -5.2 136.6 32% 60–97 ✗
Denver @ Oregon State +4.8 137.3 67% 52–57 ✓
Tulsa @ Loyola Marymount +12.7 146.0 88% 64–76 ✓
Idaho @ Long Beach State +9.8 149.9 81% 75–82 ✓
Colorado State @ USC -1.8 143.2 44% 64–73 ✗
Holy Cross @ Sacred Heart +10.9 145.2 84% 62–66 ✓
Towson @ Bryant +3.9 155.4 64% 59–69 ✓
VMI @ Fordham +14.5 148.4 91% 77–80 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Indiana State +20.6 159.5 97% 67–57 ✗
Siena @ American University +8.2 136.2 77% 64–61 ✗
Chicago State @ Minnesota +6.2 134.9 71% 55–58 ✓
North Florida @ Bethune-Cookman -5.6 146.6 31% 87–85 ✓
Cornell @ Colgate +4.5 165.6 66% 91–80 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Eastern Kentucky +2.0 127.8 57% 64–68 ✓
Jackson State @ Stephen F. Austin +13.2 156.6 88% 69–80 ✓
Little Rock @ Arkansas State +6.9 136.6 73% 75–77 ✓
Lindenwood @ Utah Tech +17.2 145.3 94% 64–95 ✓
Iona @ SMU -16.5 137.5 7% 81–85 ✗
San Diego @ Cal State Northridge -1.4 147.7 45% 78–83 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Vanderbilt +16.9 142.0 94% 62–70 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Penn State +14.8 143.4 91% 68–77 ✓
Boise State @ Santa Clara -3.7 131.8 37% 58–73 ✗
Portland @ UC Riverside +2.0 150.1 57% 65–76 ✓
Akron @ Bradley +8.7 120.7 79% 55–74 ✓
Seattle U @ Utah State +8.4 156.5 78% 56–84 ✓
Stony Brook @ West Virginia +30.6 133.5 100% 64–75 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Maryland +23.0 130.0 98% 45–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.