And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–15 on winners spread MAE 10.4 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Jackson State @ Alabama +35.1 164.1 100% 64–84 ✓
Elon @ Indiana +30.3 140.3 100% 72–96 ✓
Marquette @ Providence -1.5 156.3 45% 98–103 ✗
The Citadel @ North Carolina Central +14.0 142.3 90% 74–81 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Temple +14.1 136.7 90% 86–78 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Kennesaw State +13.9 142.8 90% 56–65 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Purdue Fort Wayne +7.6 146.1 76% 59–83 ✓
Alcorn State @ Dayton +12.5 126.3 87% 46–88 ✓
Army @ Central Connecticut +4.3 145.5 65% 66–55 ✗
Dartmouth @ Massachusetts +17.5 135.3 94% 57–68 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Little Rock +3.7 168.3 63% 66–75 ✓
Queens University @ Nebraska +8.1 139.2 77% 65–75 ✓
Northwestern State @ Baylor +21.3 157.5 97% 48–58 ✓
Idaho State @ Grand Canyon +13.2 126.6 89% 66–68 ✓
Pacific @ Lamar -8.2 157.0 23% 74–65 ✓
Air Force @ Northern Colorado -0.3 145.5 49% 67–65 ✓
Montana State @ Arizona +19.0 162.4 96% 64–85 ✓
Virginia @ Miami -1.2 137.5 46% 64–66 ✗
Seton Hall @ Xavier +11.1 145.0 84% 70–73 ✓
Montana @ Gonzaga +16.5 148.1 93% 75–85 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ New Mexico +15.8 145.1 92% 63–94 ✓
Lindenwood @ BYU +17.8 147.1 95% 61–90 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse +0.4 136.2 52% 84–82 ✗
UIC @ Northwestern +16.9 122.5 94% 54–92 ✓
Florida @ Oklahoma -1.6 140.9 44% 53–62 ✗
Fresno State @ Cal State Bakersfield -0.5 112.4 48% 56–48 ✓
Cal Poly @ San José State +7.9 121.4 76% 43–65 ✓
San Diego @ UC Riverside +8.8 153.7 79% 92–84 ✗
Harvard @ UC Irvine +14.3 133.0 90% 62–57 ✗
Utah Valley @ Oregon +11.1 137.3 84% 77–72 ✗
UC San Diego @ San Diego State +22.7 132.8 98% 46–62 ✓
James Madison @ Coppin State -12.8 171.3 12% 100–107 ✗
Stonehill @ Valparaiso +3.2 146.7 61% 67–77 ✓
Northeastern @ Davidson +12.8 140.3 88% 73–70 ✗
North Dakota State @ St. Thomas +13.4 148.5 89% 68–78 ✓
Jacksonville State @ South Alabama +13.5 137.3 89% 66–71 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Campbell -0.8 128.9 47% 74–66 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Howard -1.4 131.7 45% 62–63 ✗
Lafayette @ La Salle +5.6 121.9 69% 90–65 ✗
Winthrop @ Duquesne +11.9 154.5 86% 57–74 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas Tech +30.8 144.2 100% 67–111 ✓
Radford @ Kansas State +15.5 141.0 92% 65–73 ✓
Chattanooga @ Georgia +4.8 139.7 67% 65–72 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Iowa +30.7 147.5 100% 92–83 ✗
Boston University @ UMass Lowell +12.3 147.6 87% 60–68 ✓
George Mason @ Old Dominion +5.5 126.9 69% 77–78 ✓
UC Davis @ UCLA +24.8 150.3 99% 54–81 ✓
Norfolk State @ Nevada +15.3 140.3 92% 66–78 ✓
Austin Peay @ Tennessee +29.7 117.6 100% 44–86 ✓
High Point @ East Carolina +3.9 157.4 64% 49–60 ✓
App State @ UC Santa Barbara +5.2 131.1 68% 50–61 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Boston College -10.6 131.3 17% 65–70 ✗
St. John's @ Villanova +3.6 154.7 63% 63–78 ✓
Oakland @ Michigan State +22.9 153.7 98% 54–67 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.