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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–13 on winners
spread MAE 12.7
35 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Delaware
@
Rider
|
+4.9 | 142.2 | 67% | 60–59 | ✗ |
Maine
@
Akron
|
+4.4 | 131.4 | 66% | 55–87 | ✓ |
Holy Cross
@
New Hampshire
|
+9.6 | 126.8 | 81% | 60–78 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
South Florida
|
+0.2 | 139.4 | 51% | 70–77 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
+9.0 | 133.9 | 79% | 68–85 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Siena
|
+2.2 | 134.1 | 58% | 70–76 | ✓ |
Sacred Heart
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+6.9 | 154.1 | 73% | 59–77 | ✓ |
Manhattan
@
Marist
|
+12.3 | 129.4 | 87% | 80–69 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
Liberty
|
+8.4 | 125.9 | 78% | 56–75 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
Western Illinois
|
+4.2 | 145.9 | 65% | 60–79 | ✓ |
Charleston
@
Coastal Carolina
|
-7.8 | 147.2 | 24% | 83–69 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
Illinois State
|
+4.0 | 137.6 | 64% | 52–66 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Arkansas State
|
+10.8 | 124.8 | 84% | 65–72 | ✓ |
Stonehill
@
Bradley
|
+16.8 | 133.5 | 94% | 50–79 | ✓ |
North Dakota
@
St. Thomas
|
+12.6 | 146.3 | 87% | 62–75 | ✓ |
South Dakota State
@
Oral Roberts
|
+13.5 | 157.4 | 89% | 40–79 | ✓ |
South Dakota
@
Kansas City
|
+7.8 | 133.7 | 76% | 45–62 | ✓ |
Denver
@
Omaha
|
-0.4 | 152.0 | 49% | 66–83 | ✗ |
Weber State
@
Utah State
|
+22.2 | 146.6 | 98% | 75–72 | ✗ |
UT Arlington
@
San Francisco
|
+14.4 | 132.1 | 91% | 68–63 | ✗ |
Idaho
@
Cal State Northridge
|
+2.5 | 131.2 | 59% | 76–73 | ✗ |
Jacksonville
@
UL Monroe
|
-7.1 | 128.4 | 26% | 66–55 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
Longwood
|
+17.7 | 148.9 | 95% | 77–104 | ✓ |
Toledo
@
Vermont
|
+4.5 | 156.2 | 66% | 84–72 | ✗ |
UAlbany
@
Northern Illinois
|
+8.9 | 147.5 | 79% | 83–78 | ✗ |
Wofford
@
Texas A&M
|
+12.4 | 152.3 | 87% | 67–62 | ✗ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Oklahoma State
|
+16.4 | 138.8 | 93% | 58–81 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Ole Miss
|
+18.3 | 143.0 | 95% | 66–65 | ✗ |
East Texas A&M
@
IU Indianapolis
|
-15.0 | 136.9 | 9% | 52–62 | ✗ |
Mississippi State
@
Drake
|
-9.6 | 120.1 | 19% | 52–58 | ✗ |
Lehigh
@
Cornell
|
+17.1 | 156.4 | 94% | 64–96 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
Delaware State
|
-2.6 | 136.0 | 41% | 58–51 | ✓ |
Lipscomb
@
Louisville
|
-5.6 | 135.3 | 31% | 75–67 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
UConn
|
+33.5 | 150.7 | 100% | 73–84 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Wake Forest
|
-6.5 | 140.1 | 28% | 70–81 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.