Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | ULM +240 JAX -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +11 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -9.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -7.1 (-3.9) | 130.3 (-9.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -6.1 (-4.9) | 132.5 (-11.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -6.8 (-4.2) | 133.5 (-12.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -6.0 (-5.0) | 129.6 (-8.6) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2023 | JAX 75 – 65 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-8 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#347) | 1.4 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.71 (#341) | 1.59 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.30 (#336) | 2.14 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.376 (#345) | 0.597 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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