Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | JAX -225 ULM +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -4.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -3.4 (+6.6) | 138.2 (+1.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -3.4 (+6.6) | 141.5 (-1.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -4.2 (+5.8) | 142.8 (-2.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -4.0 (+6.0) | 141.7 (-1.7) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2022 | JAX 66 – 55 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-14 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#318) | -8.2 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#228) | -0.78 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#217) | -0.69 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#221) | 0.451 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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