Betting Lines
| Spread | ETAM -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | IUIN +320 ETAM -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IUIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IUIN +10 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | ETAM -15.3 (+25.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETAM -12.5 (+22.5) | 136.5 (-22.5) | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETAM -12.5 (+22.5) | 134.3 (-20.3) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETAM -12.2 (+22.2) | 136.6 (-22.6) | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETAM -11.8 (+21.8) | 134.4 (-20.4) | 17% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IUIN | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 9-9 |
| Home | 4-9 | 5-5 |
| Away | 0-15 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -18.8 (#361) | -3.5 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -5.05 (#363) | -0.59 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -7.61 (#363) | -1.08 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.298 (#363) | 0.462 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IUIN | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 28.4 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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