Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -600 ALST +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -12.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -9.3 (-2.3) | 131.4 (+5.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -10.4 (-3.4) | 129.9 (+7.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -9.4 (-2.4) | 131.5 (+5.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -10.1 (-3.1) | 131.1 (+5.9) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-8 | 5-5 |
| Away | 2-11 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#286) | -14.0 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#285) | -1.80 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#279) | -2.54 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#316) | 0.424 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 34.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 39.2% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.