Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
| Money | MRST -235 MAN +192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +11 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -12.5 (-23.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -8.7 (-19.7) | 135.3 (+13.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -8.2 (-19.2) | 135.8 (+13.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -8.8 (-19.8) | 133.2 (+15.8) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -9.1 (-20.1) | 134.9 (+14.1) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MRST 84 – 70 MAN |
| Dec 7, 2025 | MRST 80 – 68 MAN |
| Dec 8, 2024 | MRST 82 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MRST 57 – 50 MAN |
| Dec 3, 2023 | MRST 70 – 56 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-10 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#271) | -13.2 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#276) | -2.84 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#284) | -4.46 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#293) | 0.344 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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