Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | LIB -700 GRAM +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +19 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -8.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -6.6 (+12.4) | 130.8 (+0.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -8.9 (+10.1) | 130.0 (+1.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -7.4 (+11.6) | 131.5 (-0.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -7.9 (+11.1) | 132.6 (-1.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-3 |
| Home | 19-1 | 11-1 |
| Away | 6-7 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 63.1 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#93) | 1.1 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#95) | 0.84 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#94) | 1.36 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#114) | 0.573 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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