Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -10000 GTWN +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +11 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -32.8 (-21.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -25.4 (-14.4) | 152.7 (+4.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -24.3 (-13.3) | 151.9 (+5.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -22.0 (-11.0) | 150.8 (+6.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -26.3 (-15.3) | 152.4 (+4.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | CONN 67 – 51 GTWN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | CONN 79 – 75 GTWN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CONN 64 – 62 GTWN |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CONN 93 – 79 GTWN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CONN 68 – 60 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 2-18 |
| Home | 15-2 | 5-12 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W6 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 24.6 (#1) | -3.3 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.94 (#1) | -0.65 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.98 (#2) | -0.72 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.670 (#5) | 0.486 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.9% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 78.7% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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