Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | NIU -188 UALB +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UALB +5 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | NIU -8.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -4.4 (-9.4) | 146.8 (+14.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIU -3.8 (-8.8) | 144.5 (+16.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -5.3 (-10.3) | 146.7 (+14.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -5.8 (-10.8) | 147.3 (+13.7) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-13 |
| Home | 5-7 | 5-6 |
| Away | 7-10 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#307) | -11.2 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#313) | -2.12 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.54 (#322) | -2.87 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#288) | 0.415 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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