All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Yuengling Center · December 20, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread USF -1.5 Home covered
O/U 136.5 Over
Money USF -133 / HOF +105
Model Predictions
Spread Total USF win
Actual USF +7 147 Won
Massey USF -0.3 (+6.7) — —
Massey Totals — 139.2 (+7.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 15% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 16% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ USF -0.5 (+6.5) 139.0 (+8.0) 59% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML USF -2.1 (+4.9) 136.8 (+10.2) 54% ✓
Baseline ML USF -1.9 (+5.1) 137.6 (+9.4) 61% ✓
Baseline Plus ML USF -2.3 (+4.7) 138.9 (+8.1) 63% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 1, 2023 HOF 82 – 63 USF

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USF HOF
Overall 14-18 25-10
Conference 7-11 16-2
Home 9-9 11-2
Away 4-7 11-5
Neutral 1-2 3-3
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 72.0 74.2
Avg Pts Against 72.0 66.9
Massey -2.1 (#218) 2.4 (#122)
Bradley-Terry -1.33 (#292) 1.35 (#76)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.18 (#261) 1.55 (#89)
RPI 0.433 (#286) 0.626 (#22)
Shooting & Four Factors USF HOF
FG% 43.3% 44.5%
3PT% 31.9% 36.0%
REB / G 35.6 30.5
OREB / G 11.4 6.2
AST / TO 1.06 1.03
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.9% 51.9%
TOV% 18.0% 17.0%
ORB% 30.9% 18.9%
FT Rate 16.4% 18.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.2% 50.9%
Opp TOV% 22.1% 16.9%
DRB% 71.4% 67.3%
Opp FT Rate 29.3% 15.0%

Game Analysis

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