Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | USF -133 HOF +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | USF -0.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -0.5 (+6.5) | 139.0 (+8.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -2.1 (+4.9) | 136.8 (+10.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -1.9 (+5.1) | 137.6 (+9.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -2.3 (+4.7) | 138.9 (+8.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2023 | HOF 82 – 63 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-9 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 66.9 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#218) | 2.4 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#292) | 1.35 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#261) | 1.55 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#286) | 0.626 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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