Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -1600 SCST +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +27 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -17.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+32.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -14.0 (+13.0) | 148.8 (+32.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -15.1 (+11.9) | 150.7 (+30.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -13.1 (+13.9) | 146.7 (+34.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -13.9 (+13.1) | 146.9 (+34.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 2-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 4-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 84.7 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#145) | -11.3 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#192) | -1.38 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#196) | -2.10 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#188) | 0.420 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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