Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE +225 DUKE -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -6.1 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -4.1 (+15.1) | 138.9 (+12.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -4.8 (+15.8) | 137.1 (+13.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -5.2 (+16.2) | 141.1 (+9.9) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -4.9 (+15.9) | 139.7 (+11.3) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | DUKE 90 – 69 WAKE |
| Mar 4, 2025 | DUKE 93 – 60 WAKE |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DUKE 63 – 56 WAKE |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 DUKE |
| Feb 13, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 69 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#114) | 14.2 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#87) | 3.02 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#92) | 4.26 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#62) | 0.649 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 40.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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